Will Turkiye and Syria succeed in turning the page on decade-long enmity?/node/2553811/middle-east
Will Turkiye and Syria succeed in turning the page on decade-long enmity?
Protesters in opposition-held Idlib and the Aleppo countryside wave flags of the Syrian revolution and hold signs that read: ‘If you want to get closer to Assad, congratulations, the curse of history is upon you.’ (AN photo by Ahmed Akasha)
ATHENS/QAMISHLI, Syria: Since 2022, senior Syrian and Turkish officials have periodically met in Moscow for talks mediated by Russia. But those meetings have failed to result in a thaw in their icy relations.
It is a different matter now, however, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announcing his desire to restore formal ties with his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Assad.
He said earlier this month that he could invite Assad to Turkiye “at any moment,” to which the Syrian leader responded that any meeting would depend on the “content.”
Ankara and Damascus severed diplomatic ties in 2011 following the eruption of Syria’s civil war. Relations have remained hostile ever since, particularly as Turkiye continues to support armed groups resisting the Assad regime.
Since the civil war erupted in 2011, Turkiye has supported armed Syrian factions in their fight against the regime of President Bashar Assad. (AFP)
What, then, is the motivation for changing course now? And what are the likely consequences of Turkish-Syrian normalization of ties?
Syrian writer and political researcher Shoresh Darwish believes President Erdogan is pursuing normalization for two reasons. “The first is preparation for the possibility of the arrival of a new American administration led by Donald Trump, which means the possibility of a return to the policy of (a US) withdrawal from Syria,” he told Arab News.
“Erdogan will therefore need to cooperate with Assad and Russia.”
This photo released by the Syrian Arab News Agency shows President Bashar Assad (R) meeting with then Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Aleppo. (SANA/AFP)
The second reason, Darwish says, is Erdogan’s desire to get closer to Syrian regime ally Russia after Turkiye’s drift toward the US following the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Indeed, as a NATO member state, the conflict has complicated Turkiye’s normally balanced approach to its ties with Washington and Moscow.
“Ankara’s cooperation with Moscow is difficult in terms of the Ukrainian issue,” said Darwish. “As a result of the significant Western interference in this issue, their cooperation in Syria represents a meeting point through which Erdogan wants to highlight his friendship with Putin and Moscow’s interests in the Middle East.”
Those in Syria’s opposition-held northwest, which is backed by Turkiye, see an Ankara-Damascus rapprochement as a betrayal.
Protesters in opposition-held Idlib and the Aleppo countryside wave flags of the Syrian revolution and hold signs that read: ‘If you want to get closer to Assad, congratulations, the curse of history is upon you.’ (AN photo by Ahmed Akasha)
During one of several protests in Idlib since the beginning of July, demonstrators held signs in Arabic that read: “If you want to get closer to Assad, congratulations, the curse of history is upon you.”
Abdulkarim Omar, a political activist from Idlib, told Arab News: “Western Syria, Idlib, the Aleppo countryside, and all areas belonging to the opposition completely reject this behavior because it is only in the interest of the Syrian regime.
Turkish-backed Syrian rebel fighters take part in a military parade in the rebel-held northern part of the Aleppo province on July 2, 2022. (AFP)
“The Syrian people came out 13 years ago and rose up in their revolution demanding freedom, dignity, and the building of a civil, democratic state for all Syrians. This can only be achieved by overthrowing the tyrannical Syrian regime represented by Bashar Assad. They still cling to this principle and these slogans and cannot abandon them.”
Those living in areas controlled by the Kurdish-led and US-backed Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, or AANES, which holds much of Syria’s territory east of the Euphrates River, are also wary of the consequences of normalization.
Map of Syria showing zones of control by the different partipants in late 2020. Some cities then under the control of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces had been seized by Turkish forces. (AFP/File)
“There are fears among the population that reconciliation may be a prelude to punishing the Syrian Kurds for their political choices,” said Omar.
Incursions into Syria from 2016 to 2019 saw Turkiye take control of several cities, many of which were previously under the control of the AANES.
Turkiye’s justification for its 2018 and 2019 incursions and continued presence on Syrian territory was its aim to establish a “safe zone” between itself and the armed forces of the AANES — the Syrian Democratic Forces.
A member of the Syrian Kurdish Asayish security forces stands guard as mourners march during the funeral of two Kurdish women killed in a Turkish drone strike in Hasakah, northeastern Syria, on June 21, 2023. (AFP)
Turkiye views the SDF as a Syrian wing of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, a group that has been in conflict with the Turkish state since the 1980s.
“Naturally, the Syrian Kurds know that they will be part of any deal that Erdogan wants to conclude with Assad,” said Darwish. “This issue unnerves the Syrian Kurds, who see Turkiye as ready to do anything to harm them and their experience in self-administration.”
Darwish says the Syrian Kurds would accept reconciliation on three conditions. First they would want to see Turkiye remove its troops from Afrin and Ras Al-Ain. Second, an end to Turkish strikes against AANES areas. And third, a guarantee from the Assad regime “that the Syrian Kurds will enjoy their national, cultural, and administrative rights.”
In this photo taken on January 27, 2018, a Turkish military convoy drives through the Oncupinar border crossing as troops enter Syria during a military campaign in the Kurdish-held Syrian enclave of Afrin. (AFP/File)
But just how likely is a rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus? Not very, according to conflict analyst and UNHRC delegate Thoreau Redcrow. “I find the prospects of an Erdogan and Assad detente very unlikely,” he told Arab News.
“Historically, Turkiye’s ideas of ‘normalization’ with Syria amount to a policy of one-way influence for Ankara’s benefit. In this arrangement, Turkiye continues to occupy Hatay (Liwa Iskenderun), which they seized from Syria in 1938, and make military incursion demands on their sovereignty, like with the Adana Agreement in 1998, but give nothing in return.”
Assad has made it clear in public statements that a meeting between him and Erdogan would only occur on the condition of a Turkish withdrawal from Syrian territory. Redcrow believes Turkiye has no intention of leaving.
“I cannot see Damascus being interested in being manipulated for a photo-op,” he said. “The Syrian government is far more prideful than some of the other regional actors who are happy to be one of Turkiye’s ‘neo-Ottoman vilayets.’”
Erdogan may be attempting to capitalize on the trend toward normalization among Arab countries, which began in earnest with Syria’s reinstatement into the Arab League last year. European states and the US, however, remain divided.
A parade by female staff of the internal security and police force of the US-backed AANES, which governs much of Syria’s territory east of the Euphrates River. (AN photo by Ali Ali)
“Whereas Germany, France, Italy, and the UK in particular are more focused on how Turkiye can control the gateway into Europe and act as a ‘continental bouncer’ for refugees from the Middle East and Western Asia, the US is more focused on denying Russia and Iran full access to all of Syria again for strategic reasons, like Mediterranean Sea access and the ‘Shiite land bridge’ from Tehran to Beirut,” said Redcrow.
“The current status quo is far more beneficial to Washington than any reconciliation would be, as it would also endanger the northeast portions of Syria, where the US military is embedded with their most reliable military partners against Daesh in the SDF. So, Turkiye would not be given any kind of green light to place American interests at risk.”
The US House of Representatives in February passed the Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act of 2023, which prohibits any normalization with Assad. In a post on the social media platform X on July 12, the bill’s author, Rep. Joe Wilson, voiced his disappointment with Erdogan’s calls for normalization, likening it to “normalizing with death itself.”
Troops from the Syrian Democratic Forces and the US-led anti-jihadist coalition, take part in heavy-weaponry military exercises in the countryside of Deir Ezzor in northeastern Syria, on March 25, 2022. ((AFP)
Though there may be little chance of reconciliation succeeding at this point, the approximately 3.18 million Syrian refugees living in Turkiye view even rumors of normalization with fear and dread.
“People are very afraid,” Amal Hayat, a Syrian mother of five living in southeastern Turkiye, told Arab News. “Since the rumors (of reconciliation) started, many people don’t even leave their homes. Even if they are beaten by their bosses at work, they are afraid to say anything for fear of being deported.”
Turkish authorities deported more than 57,000 Syrians in 2023, according to Human Rights Watch.
“A forced return would affect us a lot,” said Hayat. “For example, if a woman returns to Syria with her family, her husband may be arrested by the regime. Or if a man gets deported back to Syria and his wife and children stay in Turkiye, how will they manage? It’s difficult. Here, our kids can study. They have stability and safety.
A Syrian woman is seen at a refugee camp near the Syria-Turkish border. (AN photo by Ali Ali)
The fear of deportation has been compounded by waves of violence against Syrian refugees which swept Turkiye’s south in recent weeks. On June 30, residents of central Turkiye’s Kayseri province attacked Syrians and their property.
Anti-Syrian sentiment in Turkiye is partially due to economic issues, where Turks see underpaid or even unpaid Syrians as a threat to their prospects of employment.
“The Turks are very happy for us to return home,” said Hayat. “For them, it’s not soon enough. We are all living under a heightened level of stress. We are just praying that (Assad and Erdogan) don’t reconcile.”
US says Israel to open new Gaza crossing as aid deadline looms
The US has given Israel until November 13 to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza
Letter calls for a minimum of 350 trucks per day to be allowed into Gaza
Updated 07 November 2024
AFP
WASHINGTON: Israel has informed the United States that it will open an additional crossing for aid into Gaza, the State Department said Thursday, as a US-imposed deadline looms next week.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin have given Israel until November 13 to improve the humanitarian situation in the war-besieged Gaza Strip or risk the withholding of some military assistance from the United States, Israel’s biggest supporter.
They made the demands in a letter before Tuesday’s election of President-elect Donald Trump, who has promised to give freer rein to Israel.
State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said that Israel, after recently reopening the Erez crossing, has informed the United States that they “hope to open an additional new crossing at Kissufim” in “the next few days.”
“We have continued to press them, and we have seen them, including in the past few days since the election, take additional steps,” Miller told reporters.
He stopped short of saying how the United States would assess Israel’s compliance with the aid demands.
In the letter, Blinken and Austin had urged Israel to “consistently” let aid through four major crossings and to open a fifth crossing.
Kissufim, near a kibbutz across from southern Gaza that was attacked in the October 7, 2023 Hamas assault that sparked the war, has mostly been in disuse except by the military since Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005.
The letter called for a minimum of 350 trucks per day to be allowed into Gaza. Miller said 229 trucks entered on Tuesday.
Outgoing President Joe Biden has repeatedly pressed Israel to improve humanitarian aid and protect civilians, while mostly stopping short of using leverage such as cutting off weapons.
Miller said Blinken hoped to keep using the rest of his term to press for an end to the wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
France mulling new sanctions on Israeli settlers, minister says in West Bank
“France has been a driving force to establish the first sanction regime at the European level,” Barrot said
Barrot renewed France’s commitment to a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
Updated 07 November 2024
AFP
RAMALLAH: France is mulling new sanctions on those enabling the expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, regarded as illegal under international law, Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on a visit to the territory on Thursday.
“France has been a driving force to establish the first sanction regime at the European level targeting individuals or entities, either actors or accomplices of settlement activities,” Barrot said after talks with Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas in Ramallah.
“This regime has been activated two times already and we’re working on a third batch of sanctions targeting these activities that again are illegal with respect to international law.”
Barrot renewed France’s commitment to a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and warned settlement activities “threaten the political perspective that can ensure durable peace for Israel and Palestine.”
Before meeting Abbas, Barrot visited the adjacent town of Al-Bireh, where Israeli settlers set fire to 20 cars on Monday, damaging a nearby building.
After speaking with residents and local officials at the scene, Barrot noted that the attack took place in a part of the West Bank where the Palestinians were supposed to enjoy both civil and security control under the Oslo Accords of the 1990s.
“These attacks from extremist and violent settlers are not only completely inexcusable, not only contrary to international law, but they weaken the perspective of a two-state solution,” Barrot said.
Ramallah and Al-Bireh governor Laila Ghannam expressed outrage that settler attacks were “taking place in full view and hearing of the entire silent international community.”
“Perhaps today, with the visit of the French foreign minister, there will be a spotlight here,” she told AFP.
Speaking in Jerusalem earlier Thursday, Barrot said he saw prospects for ending Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon after Donald Trump’s re-election, citing the Republican’s “wish to see the end of the Middle East’s endless wars” as well as recent “tactical successes” for Israel.
RABAT: The Moroccan population grew to 36.82 million by September 2024, according to the preliminary results of a national census, the spokesman for the government said on Thursday.
Compared with the most recent census in 2014, the Moroccan population grew by 2.98 million or 8.8 percent, spokesman Mustapha Baitas told reporters.
The number of households grew to 9.27 million by September 2024, up 26.8 percent compared to 2014, while the number of foreigners living in the country increased to 148,152, up 71.8 percent, he said.
Israel escalates attacks on Lebanon as strikes hit near Beirut airport
Drone strike near Sidon kills three and injures Lebanese soldiers and UN peacekeepers
Former Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah’s uncle and family members also killed
Updated 07 November 2024
NAJIA HOUSSARI
BEIRUT: At least 10 people were killed in Lebanon on Thursday in Israeli drone attacks on roads across the south, Mount Lebanon and Bekaa.
Former Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah’s uncle and his family members were also killed by strikes in southern Lebanon.
In Baalbek-Hermel, dozens of victims were laid to rest. They died trapped under the rubble of several flattened buildings, some adjacent to the Baalbek Temple.
In the afternoon, an Israeli strike targeted Tyre.
An Israeli drone hit a car on the Araya road in Mount Lebanon, killing the driver, a 30-year-old woman, making her Israel’s first female target.
Doaa Mattar’s family said that they lost contact with their daughter at the time of the raid.
A relative said that Mattar had taken her friend’s car to drive her family from Beirut to Bhamdoun.
Her body was taken to Hezbollah’s Al-Rassoul Al-Azam Hospital, while two injured passersby — a man and his grandson — were transported to the Sacre Coeur Hospital.
Hours later, another Israeli drone targeted a car on the Awali River road at the entrance to the city of Sidon, south of Beirut.
The strike killed three people inside the vehicle, injured three Lebanese soldiers at a nearby checkpoint and damaged several cars, including a passing UNIFIL convoy bus.
It resulted in five minor injuries among Malaysian UNIFIL soldiers and two civilian injuries.
Meanwhile, Beirut’s southern suburb experienced a violent night of airstrikes that continued until the early hours of Thursday morning, targeting Haret Hreik, Burj Al-Barajneh, Tahwitat Al-Ghadir and Ouzai.
One of the strikes came close to a runway at Beirut airport, causing damage to facilities.
However, airport operations continued, with Middle East Airlines switching to alternative runways for landing minutes after Israel issued evacuation warnings.
All planes heading for Beirut landed shortly before midnight ahead of the Israeli-imposed deadline.
The airstrikes on the southern suburb of Beirut caused extensive damage to residential buildings, shops, schools, social facilities and health centers.
A week of relative calm in Beirut’s southern suburb was shattered as warning sirens caused recently returned residents to flee north.
Many families were forced on to the streets, waiting in their vehicles at a safe distance from the targeted areas.
The Israeli military claimed to have conducted precision strikes against Hezbollah command centers and military infrastructure in the Lebanese capital, according to military spokesman Avichay Adraee.
Israel’s systematic destruction of southern Lebanese towns continued with renewed intensity. Israeli forces reportedly rigged and detonated entire neighborhoods in the border town of Mays Al-Jabal.
Israeli warplanes conducted strikes on the outskirts of Yahmar Al-Shaqif near the Litani River, hitting the town center and eastern areas. The predominantly Christian town of Rmeish, whose residents have steadfastly refused to leave, was also targeted.
In Jbaa, located in the Tuffah region, airstrikes caused significant damage. A separate strike on Bazouriye killed four members of Nasrallah’s extended family, including his uncle, cousins and their grandson.
Reports indicate that Israeli forces used internationally prohibited cluster bombs in their targeting of agricultural fields.
The scope of destruction has reached unprecedented levels in Nabatieh, where medical facilities, businesses, institutions, warehouses and residential buildings have been severely damaged.
Footage shared on social media revealed that entire neighborhoods had been turned into rubble.
Violent clashes erupted on Wednesday evening between Hezbollah fighters and Israeli forces near Rmeish and Yaroun, opposite the Dovev settlement.
Exchanges of fire were also reported near Aita Al-Shaab when Israeli forces attempted to advance into Lebanese territory.
The death and injury toll continues to mount, with the Bekaa region alone reporting 60 casualties, with dozens wounded.
Scenes of mass burials echoed those from Gaza. Among the dead are multiple generations of families, including the Abu Asbar family, who lost parents, children, grandchildren and in-laws during a single Israeli strike.
The attacks have also threatened Lebanon’s cultural heritage, with damage reported near the historic Baalbek Castle complex and the century-old Al-Manshieh building, known for its cultural artifacts.
The Palmyra Hotel, which has hosted decades of Baalbek festivals, also sustained damage.
Baalbek Mayor Mustafa Al-Shall said: “The enemy is targeting poor and residential neighborhoods, and it did not spare archaeological, heritage and historical sites. The number of martyrs in Baalbek is very high.”
One Israeli strike targeted soldier Raed Dandash, born in 2003, as he was driving his car in the town of Talia, in the Bekaa.
An official statement said: “Along with Raed, the strike killed his sister Nathalie and his brother Mohammed, while their mother was seriously injured.”
Airstrikes hit new areas in northern Bekaa, including the towns of Fakeha and Harfouch, killing one.
Lebanon’s officials were shocked by the attacks that targeted the vicinity of Baalbek Castle.
Culture Minister Mohammed Wissam Mortada sent an urgent appeal to UNESCO chief Audrey Azoulay through the head of Lebanon’s permanent mission to the organization, Mustafa Deeb, to “save the castle.”
Several MPs also sent a letter to Azoulay, calling on the international organization to “protect the common heritage of humanity.”
In the letter, MP Najat Saliba called for “the protection of historical sites in Lebanon, especially Baalbek, Tyre, Sidon and other valuable landmarks that are in grave danger due to the escalation of atrocities.”
She said: “These landmarks are priceless not only for our nation but for humanity. They are facing a growing danger with the escalation of the war. Their protection is a responsibility that needs to be assumed in order to preserve a part of human civilization that belongs to our common global and international heritage.”
One building destroyed by Israeli strikes bore an etching showing the year 1928. It was once frequented by French officers during France’s rule over the country.
The Israeli army announced that one of its soldiers “was killed in battles in southern Lebanon, while 60 Hezbollah members were killed during the past 24 hours.”
Hezbollah issued a statement calling on settlers in northern Israel to leave their settlements, warning that they had become become military targets.
Iran’s Pezeshkian says Tehran indifferent to US election result
Pezeshkian says ‘it does not matter’ to Iran who won US election
Iran government spokesperson plays down importance of Trump
Updated 07 November 2024
Reuters
DUBAI: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the result of the US election did not matter to his country, state media reported on Thursday, amid heightened tensions with Washington over its support for Iran’s arch-enemy, Israel.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House following his election victory this week could mean tougher enforcement of US oil sanctions against Iran, which he initiated in 2018 after quitting a nuclear pact between Tehran and global powers.
The Biden administration has strongly supported Israel in its wars against the Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon as well as Israeli actions against Iran itself.
Some analysts believe Trump will give Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a greater free hand in dealing with Iran.
“To us it does not matter at all who has won the American election, because our country and system relies on its inner strength and a great and honorable nation,” Pezeshkian said late on Wednesday, quoted by the state news agency IRNA.
It was his first comment on Trump’s election victory.
“We will not be close-minded in developing our relations with other countries (while) we have made it our priority to develop relations with Islamic and neighboring countries,” Pezeshkian said.
It was not immediately clear if Pezeshkian was also referring to the United States, with which Iran does not have diplomatic relations. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say in all matters of state, has banned holding any direct talks with the United States.
An Iranian government spokesperson earlier played down the importance of the US election, while a Revolutionary Guards commander voiced readiness for confrontation.
The Iranian leaders’ main concern is the potential for Trump to empower Netanyahu to strike Iran’s nuclear sites, conduct assassinations and reimpose his “maximum pressure” policy through heightened sanctions on the country’s oil industry.
Some, however, suspect Trump will be cautious about the possibility of war.
In 2018, the then-Trump administration exited Iran’s 2015 nuclear pact with six world powers and reimposed harsh sanctions on Iran, prompting Tehran to violate the pact’s nuclear limits.
International sanctions over Tehran’s nuclear program forced Tehran to reach the 2015 pact under which Iran agreed to curb its nuclear program in exchange for lifting the punitive measures.
Trump’s tough stance could force Ayatollah Khamenei to approve talks “whether direct or indirect” with the United States, two Iranian officials have told Reuters.
In September, Pezeshkian said Tehran was ready to end its nuclear standoff with the West, which accuses it of seeking capacity to develop nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only.
